By Tim Maroney
I began writing this particular blog entry a week before it was announced that Goldman Sachs was making a $500 million investment in Facebook on behalf of its largest private investor clients. The size of the investment, its timing and the nature of the transaction have all gotten the attention of the Internet investor community, as well as banking regulators and the media.
The investment is a departure for Goldman Sachs based upon its history of not being heavily invested in Internet stocks, and came at a time when the new financial regulatory legislation passed in Congress last fall requires banks to begin separating their investment banking operations from retail and business banking services. Goldman Sachs became a bank in 2008 to be eligible for TARP funds. The new law is somewhat of a roll back to where the financial industry was in the 1980’s, without reinstating the Glass Steagall Act that was repealed in 1999. The way Goldman Sachs structured the Facebook deal may be an end run around the new legislation on which the ink is hardly dry.
If you know anything about Goldman Sachs then you know that in order for them to make this large of a financial recommendation on anything there has to be a near guarantee that the investment will yield super-returns within 3-5 years.
I believe this is a sure bet for the Goldman Sachs investors, because although the $500 million price tag seems like a lot now it is actually less than $1.00 per Facebook Connection. Annual Facebook revenues are already approaching three times that, so the idea that advertising and applications revenues will reach much higher multiples soon is not great leap of risk.
This brings me to the larger point I decided to write about before this transaction was announced: With more than 600 million connections Facebook is in the process of writing another chapter in the decline of traditional media like television and print (magazines) as we have known and experienced them since World War II. Facebook’s one audience is larger than the combined reach of all the media available to advertisers as recently as 2005.
For the last 45 years the Super Bowl has been the biggest sports media event of the year. And, according to recent Nielsen statistics, last year’s Super Bowl, at 106 million households, was the most watched television program ever, eclipsing the long standing viewership record held by the final episode of MASH in 1983.
So, until this year at least, major advertisers have ponied up huge production and media budgets to get their brands in front of the one-time, four-hour shelf life, Super Bowl audience. Premium costs and the available number of ad positions within the Super Bowl program have limited access to this audience to the few brands that could afford it.
On the other hand, Facebook is 24/7, advertising production costs are a fraction of Super Bowl TV ads and you can buy space on either a CPM or PPC. Plus, Facebook offers targeting and interaction with customers on a grand scale. You don’t get to ‘own’ the Super Bowl audience while Facebook Connections are long lasting.
This does not mean that the Super Bowl and its audience will go away. Television networks will have to be more competitive and creative in how they sell Super Bowl time, perhaps including more ads over a longer period time than just the one broadcast and adding value to the media buy with interactive promotions that drive extended consumer engagement. We’ll see brands adjust the way they use the Super Bowl within the context that it is not the “big play” of the year anymore.
Continued recessionary pressures on ad spending are already causing brand managers to adjust their media strategies to get their brands in front of the most customers at least cost, reminding us that the Super Bowl is a sporting event. Brand marketing is business.
I will be sorry if this means that we will not see as many of the terrific Super Bowl advertisements I look forward to each year (why can’t they be that good all the time?), and predict that over the next two years brands will shift a large percentage of their ‘traditional’ Super Bowl budgets to Facebook’s larger audience with repeat opportunities to interact with connections–making Facebook the biggest game in town.
And, that is what Goldman Sachs is banking on.